Data scoop: what CEOs are thinking right now

KPMG has released its annual CEO Outlook from 1,325 global CEOs across 11 markets.

While Armstrong & Partners has trawled through the minds of 100 knowledge leaders and workers in the UK over the last few weeks, both before and since the major “fiscal events” began.

For those not in the UK, political aftermath of the sterling crash was described by a BBC commentator as, “The ring master has left the circus and now the lions are eating the clowns.”

The best response was, “poor lions”.

Let’s drop the KPMG and Armstrong & Partners data sets into a blender, hit ‘pulse’ and see what we get…

👑 Kings want their courts back
KPMG reports that many multinational organisations are launching return-to-office (read— “return to normal”) plans: 65% of CEOs envision in-office will be the go-to office environment in 3 years.

In the UK, we hear many leaders doubling down on the return to office, but also see a large divergent group letting go of space to offset other rising costs.

Neither group is necessarily thrilled about it.

Some of those letting go of offices are doing so through gritted teeth—they feel employees and potential hires are giving them no choice.

Some of those driving the return are deeply irritated it’s costing them more to hire (our research shows this is true! Details next week) and they are facing so much resistance. The HR leaders in the middle are feeling under pressure.

🌊 Economic riptide
KPMG says that 86% of CEOs believe there will be a recession over the next 12 months, but 58% feel it will be mild and short.

We hear cognitive dissonance on this one: many leaders are still reporting better numbers than expected, but higher levels of anxiety about the economy and recession than the KPMG numbers, which were collected in August.

Especially since last week…

On the back of the 45% tax rate cut, at least one board agreed to scrap pay rises for anyone on over £150k and are now, presumably, having to reinstate them. A lot of people are reporting increasing panic within teams about interest rates and their home electricity trackers constantly indicating “over budget”.

Conversely, interviews I am doing in the Middle East at the moment are resoundingly upbeat and future-focused.

🥷 Talent market gone guerrilla
On talent, 39% of KMPG’s CEOs have implemented a hiring freeze, and 46% are considering downsizing their employee base over the next 6 months.

While this may be true across the board, for key roles (including law, data, marketing, a range of technical skills, and senior roles generally) the talent market remains “insane” and “guerrilla”, with new players offering flexible packages and benefits that established firms are struggling to compete with.

We’re still getting reports of whole teams being approached and very big rises offered (up to 100%) to those willing to move, often with very little expectation they will physically move to their new offices.

Recruiters remain busy busy.

☘️ ESG deprioritised?
KPMG says that ESG is increasingly seen as a differentiator when it comes to attracting and retaining talent.

Hmmm!

That is the aspiration…. but we didn’t hear much in the way of specific, new activity. Aside from someone who paused long and hard and said it had been “deprioritised”.

Next week

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Christine